The Manchester Central By-Election is to be held on Thursday 15 November.

“THE LABOUR PARTY must really love you,” I say to Lucy Powell. “They’ve given you the candidacy of a safe seat with almost a 10,500 majority at the last election. You don’t even have to bother campaigning?”

“I can’t think like that,” says Powell. “I was the candidate for Manchester Withington at the last General Election. The campaign ebbed and flowed, and in the end I lost. Having been through that process once, I don’t take a single thing for granted.”

If there is a sure bet in politics then this is it. Nailed on as we say. But of course Lucy Powell can't say that.

“That was different though,” I say. “There were other factors, and maybe many Labour party folk or those who might have voted for you, felt fed up with the tail end of the Blair/Brown years. Here there’s a different demographic and a different record for Labour. It’s a mid-term by-election during a Conservative/Lib Dem government. Manchester Central has been solidly Labour since the constituency was created in 1974. It's a nailed on result?”

Lucy Powell takes a moment to consider before adding.

“This is traditionally a very solid Labour seat,” she says, “but you can’t be complacent. I’ve been out on the doors every single night of the week, every weekend for months and months, and I’m pleased to say the response has been very positive. So, while I can’t take things for granted, hopefully, we can translate that into a good majority.”

If there is a sure bet in politics then this is it. Nailed on as we say. But of course Lucy Powell can't say that.

But first, let's give Powell her biography. 

The Manchester Central candidate is Manchester raised and Parrs Wood School and Oxford University educated. She joined the Labour Party at 15, later working as the very grand sounding, Director of Britain in Europe. As mentioned above she was the Labour candidate for Manchester Withington in 2010 where surprisingly she lost, despite the much publicised support of celeb lefties such as Eddie Izzard.

Following the defeat she was appointed Campaign Manager for Ed Miliband’s Leadership Campaign, then acting Labour Chief of Staff and now Deputy Chief of Staff. She’s married with two kids and lives in south Manchester and is apparently a City fan.

The Manchester Central Manor looking eastThe Manchester Central manor looking east, to Etihad Stadium

The Powell Approach To Politics

“Manchester has a tradition of radicalism,” I say. “There have been many politicians who’ve been prepared to speak out. Has the modern party machine stopped that? Will you have to toe the line, Lucy, or will you have your say?"

“Politics has definitely got one-dimensional," says Powell, "although I don’t think it’s the fault of the party machine or the politicians themselves. I think that’s part of the whole media and the whole eco-system that makes our political system. You can’t put a foot wrong and you’re expected to be perfect.”

Not bad. Seven minutes in and the media gets the blame.

“Don’t be perfect then," I say. "People want from their politicians humanity and personality and colour...”

“I see myself,” says Powell, with a hint of fire in her voice, “as slightly different. I will be the first woman Labour MP in the Manchester Central constituency, second only woman MP in Manchester. Given this is the home of the Trades Union movement and the Suffragette movement it’s pretty shameful it’s taken this long. I’m born and bred Mancunian. I’m only interested in representing this city.

“I’ve always described myself as an egg-breaker,” she continues. “I’m relatively young in terms of what I’m doing. I haven’t got to where I am by toeing the party line or toeing any line. I’ve got to where I am by being someone prepared to take risks on issues or causes that people aren’t always prepared to take. If you want to make progress, if you want to get things done, you have to be someone who’s prepared to fly their own plane.”

Here’s hoping. Because despite that flicker of fire, Lucy Powell seems such a nice woman – a cup of tea, biscuits and a chat on a sofa sort of person. Unless I’m missing something she doesn’t come across as a prospective MP with real bite nor a natural future leader. If she’s an egg-breaker it might only be to make omelettes.

Manchester Central, The Mad Constituency

But Manchester Central needs a strong character, it’s after all a crazy mixed up place.

“If you win you'll inherit the most schizophrenic constituency in the country," I say. "You’ve got deprived inner urban areas and cheek by jowl Phil Neville trying to sell a flat for £4m in Beetham Tower. How does that affect the way you think about Manchester Central?

“It’s an exciting place,” Powell says. “It’s a diverse constituency, and it’s also now the biggest in the country. We have 97,000 people on the electoral role and probably a few more thousand not on the electoral role.”

“There are different issues in different areas. In the city centre, for example, I’ve been running a campaign about making sure managing and letting agents behave correctly. This is less relevant in places such as Beswick, Moss Side or Ardwick, but there I’m looking at the changes to the welfare system and benefit cuts, housing shortages, and the cost of living crisis in terms of frozen salaries and frozen wages.

“So as a Labour Party MP, should you get in, would you see yourself representing more the deprived inner suburbs than the city centre?” 

“No, no, not at all,” says Powell keen to emphasise her inclusive Milibandism. “There are different issues for different areas, but there are also issues that cut across Manchester, such as investment in the city, jobs and growth, the economy. The economy affects all parts of the constituency, so that’s key.”

I decide on a change of direction.

The local Labour administration has been a one-party state since the 1980s. There is no prospect of it being anything else before the next Ice Age. This delivers stability of governance, but also the danger of a 'we're always right' attitude and a tendency to not listen to dissenting voices.

“How will your relationship be with the city council, should you win, given its national reputation for being single-minded and strongly led?” I ask.

“I’ve worked with the city council under Labour leadership for years and years,” says Powell. “There have been many things I totally support and agree with and some I don’t. But the record speaks for itself. Manchester is now punching well above its weight in comparison to other cities in the UK and we’re weathering the recession better than any other Northern city. Manchester city council’s got a fantastic track record and a good strategy for the future. But there have been issues where I’ve disagreed with the council in the past...”

“Name one,” I say.

“Things that are behind the scenes that I’ve lobbied for that you don’t even know about and that I’ve changed before they’ve come to light,” says Powell mysteriously and without pause and also noticeably without stating exactly what these ‘things’ might be.

“We’ll probably have more battles," she continues, "because it looks like there’ll be another round of major cuts in the next couple of years. Big decisions will have to be made on things we thought were settled. That might be over local libraries and swimming pools, or services for children and adults. But I guarantee I will absolutely make my case for what I think is the right or wrong thing to do for the communities or the services affected.”

The Manchester Central Manor looking southThe Manchester Central Manor looking south

Aspiration, Apathy And Parking

“Aside from the cuts, how can we raise the aspiration level of the inner urban areas?" I ask. "I know them well, and a big problem is that parents have generationally felt they’re not good enough, and if they’re seen to want to improve, then it’s class-war and they’re called snobs and worse. ”

“You're right. We have to think in terms of empowering communities to make decisions for themselves, and get people involved so they feel they can aspire,” says Powell. “A big part of this is, for me, as a politician, activism. We’ve picked up people along the way during this campaign who can deliver that. The Labour Party at the moment is looking at a community organising model, based on an American idea, this aims to build a community network. It can also even work in the city centre, because even though people might be more educated and aspirant, they’ve got no connections with each other. There’s no collective voice.”

“Maybe that's why this is such an apathetic constituency?” I ask. “The turn-out was only 42% in 2010.”

“True Manchester Central had the lowest turnout of just about anywhere in the UK at the General Election,” says Powell. “Turnout is a big issue. And it is the city centre dwellers that make it so low. It’s not what people might imagine, with traditional communities in social housing not turning out, there it’s reasonable. In the city centre, there’s a more transient population and more students. Some people have an apartment as a second home and will vote where their first home is located. In fact, it looks bad on paper, but if you take out people who are registered to vote somewhere else, it’s not too bad.”

“Let's finish with another aspect of city centre life,” I say. “There is a debate over car-parking and the introduction of Sunday and evening on-street charging plus extortionate multi-storey parking fees, and also questions being asked by residents who need to park in the city centre. Is parking policy hindering city centre development?"

“It gets raised with me by both residents and traders," saysPowell. "We’ve spent many years building up an outstanding city centre. But the truth of it is, we are in a climate where the city has to make hundreds of millions of pounds of cuts. You have to think where to get the revenue from and where to cut the services. If you’re making a decision over whether you provide services to vulnerable older people at home or put up parking charges a bit then, you know....You’ve got to constantly evaluate whether you’re tipping the balance or not. Of course I’d like to see the evidence and evaluation about parking.”

Confidential finds it interesting how the reasons for parking policy in the city centre seem to shift. The council originally stated the changes were imposed to make the flow of traffic easier and fairer. Powell states she believes it was all about the cuts. 

And The Endgame?

“What are your ambitions politically?” I ask. “Would you like to fly all the way to the top? Does Lucy Powell want to be the first female Labour Prime Minister?

“No!” she says. “We’ll see how it goes. I have to be elected first. My first priority would be doing the job in Manchester. I have a young family based here, my children go to school here. If anything I’d like to spend as little time as possible in Parliament.”

That seems an odd attitude for a career politician. Maybe local government would have proved a better path?

What strikes me most is how careful Lucy Powell is with her answers, and thoughts aside from the moment of passion about not toeing the party line.

Perhaps she needs to be more careful she doesn’t become an identikit, apparatchik politician. It'd be nice to see her lash out a little, be less contolled.

No wonder Boris is getting so much attention in London

People crave personality, definition. Fear of the media – an irrational fear – has turned modern political parties into yellow bellies. They should be less afraid of the media and more assertive. If nothing else making their members more memorable might boost voter turnout and thus strengthen democracy.

I wish Lucy Powell had said she’d love to be Prime Minister. Occasionally I got a hint of steel and determination. But will a cast-iron, screwed on by-election victory bring this out or will it firmly push her into the comfort zone? The glimmer of hope is that if the Labour Party have given her such a good seat to fight then maybe they have plans for her. 

Follow Jonathan Schofield here @JonathSchofield

Manchester Central Constituency takes in electoral wards in Moston, Ancoats and Clayton, Ardwick, Bradford, City Centre, Hulme, Moss Side, Miles Platting and Newton Heath and Whalley Range. It was created in 1974. Every election has returned a Labour candidate. Tony Lloyd who retired to stand for Greater Manchester Police Commissioner was MP from 1997. Was the hapless Bill Boaks, the world's worst politician? He stood in the 1979 General Election in Manchester Central, on the ridiculous ticket of 'Democratic Monarchist, Public Safety, White Resident'. He got 12 votes - was that even all his family?